Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Miami Dolphins 21

(1:55) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to MIA 33, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 89-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 77, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model