4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 74

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(7:05) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to MIA 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-T.Davis to MIA 25 for 8 yards (56-H.Nickerson).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model