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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 78

Miami Dolphins 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:31) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-T.Pepper. 24-D.Phillips to CIN 20 for -1 yards (42-P.Laird).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.09 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP