4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 34

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Miami Dolphins 28

What Actually Happened

(3:45) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.85 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model