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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(5:16) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 89-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.24 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model