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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2019-12-22 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 8.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

ARI
33.5%
SEA
66.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.151 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.015 EPA/dropback
  • ARI defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 21
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

ARI

Caraun Reid DT Questionable Knee
Christian Kirk WR Questionable Ankle
Justin Pugh G Questionable Back

SEA

Jadeveon Clowney DE Doubtful Core
Quandre Diggs S Doubtful Ankle
Duane Brown T Questionable Knee
Shaquill Griffin CB Questionable Hamstring
Mychal Kendricks LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 27
–
SEA 13

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:54 TD SEA (8:54) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 44-N.Bellore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 08:45 TD ARI (8:45) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake right tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – SEA 7
  • Q2 04:29 TD ARI (4:29) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – SEA 7
  • Q2 00:25 FG ARI (:25) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 17 – SEA 7
  • Q3 11:40 FG ARI (11:40) 5-Z.Gonzalez 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 20 – SEA 7
  • Q4 15:00 FG SEA (15:00) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 20 – SEA 10
  • Q4 10:07 FG SEA (10:07) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 20 – SEA 13
  • Q4 04:22 TD ARI (4:22) 41-K.Drake right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 26 – SEA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:35) 4-A.Lee punts 49 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 55%

    (3:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to ARI 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-27-M.Blair.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:26) 4-A.Lee punts 34 yards to SEA 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 23%

    (12:13) 4-A.Lee punts 21 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:20) 4-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to SEA 48, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper to SEA 3 for 45 yards (28-U.Amadi). PENALTY on ARI-47-E.Turner, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 39.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:33) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to ARI 38, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper ran ob at ARI 45 for 7 yards (42-D.Hill).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 34%

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 12-P.Cooper to SEA 33 for 14 yards (42-D.Hill).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (:25) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 81%

    (11:40) 5-Z.Gonzalez 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to ARI 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 29 for 2 yards (55-B.Burr-Kirven; 57-C.Barton).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 14 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:09) 4-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-D.Moore to SEA 46 for 16 yards (29-C.Edmonds; 59-J.Walker). PENALTY on SEA-28-U.Amadi, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 35.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to ARI 28, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 83%

    (1:20) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-R.Green), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee, RECOVERED by SEA-27-M.Blair at SEA 38. 27-M.Blair to ARI 16 for 46 yards (87-M.Williams).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:18) 4-A.Lee punts 56 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-D.Moore to SEA 25 for 18 yards (47-E.Turner; 16-T.Sherfield).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 70%

    (10:07) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.