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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 4

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:25) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.62 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 4, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model