Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 63

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Seattle Seahawks 10

(12:18) 4-A.Lee punts 56 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-D.Moore to SEA 25 for 18 yards (47-E.Turner; 16-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.69 EP
58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model