Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 92

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to SEA 48, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper to SEA 3 for 45 yards (28-U.Amadi). PENALTY on ARI-47-E.Turner, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.89 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 92, worth -5.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model