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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 5-Z.Gonzalez 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model