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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to ARI 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 29 for 2 yards (55-B.Burr-Kirven; 57-C.Barton).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model