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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to ARI 28, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP