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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 4-A.Lee punts 49 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.12 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model