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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 4-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.02 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP