CHI @ GB — 4th & Data

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HC Matt LaFleur

Sunday 2019-12-15 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 4.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

CHI

31.2%

68.8%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

GB offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
CHI offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.156 vs Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.021 EPA/dropback
GB defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
CHI on 3 more days rest than GB

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21

–

GB 26

Projected margin: GB by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CHI

Ben Braunecker TE Out Concussion

Taylor Gabriel WR Out Concussion

Bobby Massie T Out Ankle

Danny Trevathan LB Out Elbow

Roy Robertson-Harris DT Questionable Foot

Javon Wims WR Questionable Knee

GB

Jimmy Graham TE Questionable Wrist

Kevin King CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 13

–

GB 21

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 04:53 TD GB (4:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – GB 6
Q2 01:48 FG CHI (1:48) 15-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – GB 7
Q3 12:52 TD GB (12:52) 33-A.Jones left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – GB 13
Q3 07:52 TD GB (7:52) 33-A.Jones left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – GB 20
Q4 15:00 FG CHI (15:00) 15-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 6 – GB 21
Q4 08:13 TD CHI (8:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 17-A.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 12 – GB 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(11:36) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to GB 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 32-T.Ervin to GB 30 for 12 yards (55-J.Woods; 44-N.Kwiatkoski).
Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(9:09) 6-J.Scott punts 43 yards to CHI 11, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 25 for 14 yards (30-J.Williams; 43-H.Bradley).
Q1 CHI 4th & 19 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(7:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to 50, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson. PENALTY on CHI-84-C.Patterson, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 29

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 78%

(4:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(3:06) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 33 yards to GB 25, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 43

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 44%

(14:48) 6-J.Scott punts 28 yards to CHI 15, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.
Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 41

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 49%

(7:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep right to 17-A.Miller (39-C.Sullivan).
Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 36

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 62%

(5:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.
Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

(1:48) 15-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q2 GB 4th & 14 at the 41

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 49%

(:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 81-G.Allison.
Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 34

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 67%

(9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short middle to 12-A.Robinson.
Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 60%

(6:56) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to GB 25, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.
Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(3:43) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to CHI 21, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 32 for 11 yards (42-O.Burks). PENALTY on CHI-22-K.Toliver, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 26.
Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 9

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

(15:00) 15-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(13:20) 6-J.Scott punts 37 yards to CHI 33, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.
Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(7:18) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to CHI 40, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.
Q4 GB 4th & 15 at the 38 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 57%

(4:19) 6-J.Scott punts 33 yards to CHI 5, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-25-W.Redmond.
Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 49 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 29%

(1:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep middle to 12-A.Robinson. The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 52 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 23%

(:44) 6-J.Scott punts 30 yards to CHI 22, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.