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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 49

Chicago Bears 13 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep middle to 12-A.Robinson. The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.39 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.59 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model