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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:48) 6-J.Scott punts 28 yards to CHI 15, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.43 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP