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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 81-G.Allison.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.53 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP