Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 64

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(11:36) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to GB 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 32-T.Ervin to GB 30 for 12 yards (55-J.Woods; 44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.73 EP
55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model