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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 21 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to CHI 40, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 35, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model