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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 41

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep right to 17-A.Miller (39-C.Sullivan).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model