Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 84

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to 50, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson. PENALTY on CHI-84-C.Patterson, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model