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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 29

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.50 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model