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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Thursday 2019-12-05 · 20:20 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

DAL
57.3%
CHI
42.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.030 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.237 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
CHI 21
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DAL

Jeff Heath S Out Shoulder
Leighton Vander Esch LB Out Neck
Antwaun Woods DT Out Knee
Tony Pollard RB Questionable Ankle

CHI

Ben Braunecker TE Out Concussion
Taylor Gabriel WR Out Concussion
Bobby Massie T Out Ankle
Danny Trevathan LB Out Elbow
Prince Amukamara CB Doubtful Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 24
–
CHI 31

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:07 TD DAL (6:07) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-58-R.Smith was injured during the play. He is Out. DAL 6 – CHI 0
  • Q2 12:17 TD CHI (12:17) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 12-A.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – CHI 6
  • Q2 08:10 FG CHI (8:10) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DAL 7 – CHI 10
  • Q2 00:14 TD CHI (:14) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – CHI 16
  • Q3 08:23 TD CHI (8:23) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 17-A.Miller for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – CHI 23
  • Q4 15:00 TD DAL (15:00) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – CHI 24
  • Q4 13:28 TD CHI (13:28) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky left tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 14 – CHI 30
  • Q4 04:34 TD DAL (4:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 19-A.Cooper for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – CHI 31
  • Q4 00:12 FG DAL (:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 24 – CHI 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to CHI 49, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to CHI 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 46 for 13 yards (48-J.Thomas).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (8:10) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 85%

    (5:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to CHI 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 29-T.Cohen MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 24. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 33 for 9 yards (23-D.Thompson).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to DAL 16, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:31) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to CHI 35, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 46 for 11 yards (83-V.Bryant).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 32%

    (2:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 13-M.Gallup to CHI 26 for 21 yards (22-K.Toliver).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 25%

    (11:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to DAL 7, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 30%

    (9:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 21-E.Elliott.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 27%

    (7:50) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to DAL 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 34%

    (2:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to DAL 10, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-55-J.Woods.