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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 50

Chicago Bears 31 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(11:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to DAL 7, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.00 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model