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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 48

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(9:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 21-E.Elliott.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.83 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model