Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Chicago Bears 7

(11:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to CHI 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 46 for 13 yards (48-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model