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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 46

Chicago Bears 31 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to DAL 10, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-55-J.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.03 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model