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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 18

Chicago Bears 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(8:10) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.13 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model