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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 94

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to CHI 49, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.01 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 94, worth -5.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 52, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model