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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 24

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(5:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.39 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model