4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 49

Chicago Bears 31 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(7:50) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to DAL 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model