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New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2019-12-01 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NYJ
50.4%
CIN
49.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.147 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (CIN): -0.036 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CIN starting Andy Dalton in place of Ryan Finley)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 21
–
CIN 20
Projected margin: NYJ by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NYJ

Chuma Edoga T Out Knee
C.J. Mosley LB Out Groin
Paul Worrilow LB Out Quadricep
Henry Anderson DE Questionable Shoulder
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ankles
Matthias Farley S Questionable Quadricep
Alex Lewis G Questionable Elbow
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Neck
Darryl Roberts CB Questionable Calf
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring

CIN

Cethan Carter TE Out Concussion
A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
Alex Redmond G Out Elbow
Drew Sample TE Out Ankle
Nick Vigil LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 6
–
CIN 22

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:12 FG NYJ (9:12) 9-S.Ficken 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – CIN 0
  • Q1 01:17 TD CIN (1:17) (No Huddle) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – CIN 6
  • Q2 09:17 FG CIN (9:17) 4-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. NYJ 3 – CIN 10
  • Q2 01:49 TD CIN (1:49) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – CIN 16
  • Q2 00:09 FG NYJ (:09) 9-S.Ficken 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 6 – CIN 17
  • Q3 05:46 SAF CIN (5:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 26-L.Bell to NYJ 7 for 4 yards (23-B.Webb). PENALTY on NYJ-68-K.Beachum, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. NYJ 6 – CIN 19
  • Q3 01:19 FG CIN (1:19) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. NYJ 6 – CIN 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 84%

    (9:12) 9-S.Ficken 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 19%

    (6:51) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:50) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to CIN 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 38 for -1 yards (27-D.Roberts).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:19) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to NYJ 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-41-M.Farley.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (9:17) 4-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 43%

    (4:36) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to CIN 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 88%

    (:09) 9-S.Ficken 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 72%

    (11:11) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to CIN 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 35 for 7 yards (27-D.Roberts).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 21%

    (6:27) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to NYJ 2, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-17-S.Morgan.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 74%

    (1:19) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:58) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to CIN 38, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at CIN 43.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:01) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to CIN 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:20) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%

    (6:26) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 11-Ro.Anderson.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 16%

    (3:47) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to NYJ 14, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 37%

    (1:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right [96-C.Dunlap].