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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(6:51) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.15 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 51, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model