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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(6:27) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to NYJ 2, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-17-S.Morgan.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model