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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model