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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 30

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model