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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 6

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 4-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.94 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 6, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP