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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(3:47) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to NYJ 14, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.00 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model