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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 95

New York Jets 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(14:19) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to NYJ 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-41-M.Farley.

The Three Options

GO -3.75 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 95, worth -5.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model