4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(11:20) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.56 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP