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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2019-11-24 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread -5.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

PIT
70.3%
CIN
29.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Ryan Finley (CIN) -0.653 vs Mason Rudolph (PIT) -0.064 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.168 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.147 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.184 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PIT on 3 more days rest than CIN

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
CIN 16
Projected margin: PIT by 7 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

PIT

James Conner RB Out Shoulder
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Out Concussion
Artie Burns CB Doubtful Knee

CIN

A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
Drew Sample TE Out Ankle
Stanley Morgan WR Questionable Illness
Auden Tate WR Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 16
–
CIN 10

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 03:24 FG PIT (3:24) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – CIN 0
  • Q2 02:00 TD CIN (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-C.Heyward]. PIT 3 – CIN 6
  • Q3 11:22 TD PIT (11:22) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep middle to 13-J.Washington for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – CIN 7
  • Q3 05:11 FG CIN (5:11) 4-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PIT 10 – CIN 10
  • Q4 12:04 FG PIT (12:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 13 – CIN 10
  • Q4 03:21 FG PIT (3:21) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 16 – CIN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (11:46) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to PIT 2, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (9:27) 4-J.Berry punts 60 yards to CIN 30, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for no gain (31-J.Layne).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:03) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (13:29) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to PIT 33, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 40 for 7 yards (40-B.Wilson; 29-T.McRae). CIN-82-C.Carter was injured during the play.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 23%

    (10:58) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CIN 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:44) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to PIT 48, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-D.Johnson to CIN 48 for 4 yards (29-T.McRae).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (3:24) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:51) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CIN 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 25 for 7 yards (24-B.Snell Jr.). PENALTY on PIT-31-J.Layne, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 25.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:21) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:38) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CIN 37, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 39 for 2 yards (80-J.Holton; 41-R.Spillane).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:48) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (5:11) 4-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:34) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CIN 31, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 40 for 9 yards (44-T.Matakevich; 33-Tr.Edmunds).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:34) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 16 for 6 yards (29-T.McRae).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (:19) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to CIN 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-37-J.Dangerfield.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:27) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to PIT 29, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 18-D.Johnson.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 76%

    (12:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 39%

    (5:41) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to CIN 7, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-44-T.Matakevich.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:20) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to CIN 47, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-D.Johnson to CIN 43 for 4 yards (55-L.Reynolds).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (3:21) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.