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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 44

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:41) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to CIN 7, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-44-T.Matakevich.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.10 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP