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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CIN 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.70 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -2.00 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP