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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:34) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 16 for 6 yards (29-T.McRae).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model