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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to CIN 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-37-J.Dangerfield.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP