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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(12:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.04 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model