Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(12:48) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.94 EP
70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model