Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 78

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(13:38) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CIN 37, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 39 for 2 yards (80-J.Holton; 41-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model