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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Bill Callahan
Sunday 2019-11-24 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

DET
67.1%
WAS
32.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.277 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Dwayne Haskins (WAS) -0.376 vs Jeff Driskel (DET) -0.100 EPA/dropback
  • DET offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.165 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

DET 23
–
WAS 18
Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

DET

Jamal Agnew CB Out Ankle
Trey Flowers DE Out Concussion
Da'Shawn Hand DE Out Ankle
Frank Ragnow C Out Concussion
Matthew Stafford QB Out Hip
Tracy Walker S Out Knee
Rashaan Melvin CB Questionable Ribs

WAS

Vernon Davis TE Out Concussion
Daron Payne DT Doubtful Ankle
Josh Norman CB Questionable Hamstring
Adrian Peterson RB Questionable Toe
Chris Thompson RB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 16
–
WAS 19

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:34 FG WAS (2:34) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DET 0 – WAS 3
  • Q2 13:12 FG DET (13:12) 5-M.Prater 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – WAS 3
  • Q2 13:09 TD WAS 5-M.Prater kicks 59 yards from DET 35 to WAS 6. 15-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 9. 15-S.Sims for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – WAS 9
  • Q2 05:48 FG WAS (5:48) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DET 3 – WAS 13
  • Q2 00:19 FG DET (:19) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 6 – WAS 13
  • Q3 10:08 TD DET (10:08) 2-J.Driskel pass short right to 82-L.Thomas for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-35-M.Nicholson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DET 12 – WAS 13
  • Q4 12:03 FG DET (12:03) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 16 – WAS 13
  • Q4 01:54 FG WAS (1:54) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DET 16 – WAS 16
  • Q4 00:20 FG WAS (:20) 3-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DET 16 – WAS 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 87%

    (9:57) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (2:34) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (13:12) 5-M.Prater 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:35) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to DET 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-M.Hall to DET 45 for 14 yards (34-W.Smallwood).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 17 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 90%

    (5:48) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 12 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 47%

    (2:25) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to WAS 5, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-30-D.Virgin.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:16) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to DET 42, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-38-S.Thomas.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 69%

    (:19) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:56) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to DET 0, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-M.Hall to DET 2 for 2 yards (30-T.Apke).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:00) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to WAS 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (12:03) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:03) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to WAS 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 22 for no gain (30-D.Virgin).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 17 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:41) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to DET 37, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-D.Amendola to DET 41 for 4 yards (22-D.Everett, 45-M.Burton). PENALTY on DET-30-D.Virgin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 37.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:43) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to WAS 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 34 for 1 yard (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). PENALTY on WAS-58-C.Phillips, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 32.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 83%

    (1:54) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.